Friday, 22 March 2013

UKIP and BNP are two separate strands of British politics

UKIP and BNP are two separate strands of British politics

There is a popular misconception of those who say that UKIP was created to take votes away from the British National Party. In actual fact, using two usual labels, UKIP is a White Collar Party while the British National Party is a Blue Collar Party. There are similarities but merely similarities that have little to do with the fundamental ideas of UKIP and of the British National Party.

UKIP was born out of the internal differences within the Conservative Party of those who were ultra Pro-Europeans (John Major, Kenneth Clarke, Michael Heseltine and others) and those who were so deeply opposed to the European project that they could not remain as members of the Conservative Party and be faithful to their own ideas at the same time. The roots of the British National Party couldn’t be more different because it gathered support among disillusioned Labour supporters that at an early stage foresaw what is happening today in Britain.

All political parties win and lose elections taking votes away from other political parties and this is merely the natural order of things in elections. There is a floating number of voters that could support any of the present political parties at any given time. Therefore, to believe in some sort of political conspiracy is extremely naïve. If at any point in time, the official Conservative Party policies were to fundamentally change regarding Europe, it would be merely a matter of time for UKIP to be re-absorbed by the Conservative Party.

If David Cameron believed that the outcome of a Referendum on British Membership of the European Union would be a YES to the European Union, David Cameron would offer a Referendum tomorrow morning because such outcome would automatically make UKIP redundant.

The reason why David Cameron will not offer a Referendum tomorrow morning is because David Cameron knows that the outcome of such Referendum would legitimize UKIP in the minds of Conservative that are on the brink of defecting to UKIP.

This is why two consecutive defeats of the Conservative Party – Eastleigh and Havering – are so damaging for the official line of the Conservative Party. The latest result – despite being merely a by-election in one ward in Havering – is extremely important in psychological terms: UKIP 39% Conservative Party 13%.

A few months ago, the fear regarding an early General Election forced the Lid Dems to follow the official Conservative lead. The vote on Gay marriage and the presumed defeat regarding press regulations if there had been a vote in the House of Commons changed the balance of power and now both Lib Dems and Conservatives are proceeding with extreme caution. Among the Lib Dems, the situation is very fluid and Vince Cable did not hesitate to challenge Nick Clegg's apparent U-Turn on the issue of immigration. Given his position on Gay marriage, David Cameron alienated many Conservative MPs and recent electoral results can only exacerbate divisions within the Conservative Party.

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